Bus Network Assessment - Analysis and Key Findings

Analysis of Previous Surveys

The study team reviewed a commuter survey administered by Montgomery County in 2014 and the Title VI Program Update to help gauge historic ridership patterns, mode share, and ridership demographics. These surveys illustrated contrasting attitudes and preferences towards public transit.

• The commuter survey illustrated the preference of auto commuting and the dominance of the mode, with drivers seldom even aware of transit benefits available to them. Driving was enabled by free or dedicated parking, and free bikeshare memberships or carpool priority was not enough to sway drivers out of their cars.
• Over 27 percent of the county makes less than $20,000 a year emphasizing the need for public transit as a connector to jobs, leisure, and education. Certain areas such as Germantown, Gaithersburg, and Wheaton were highlighted in the Program Update as specific areas where poverty levels are higher than in the surrounding areas at around 15 to 21 percent, further demonstrating the importance of public transit.
• Many of the responses from the internet survey indicate careers with higher salaries in healthcare fields or other associated businesses, as these commuters would typically work a 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. workday. The paper survey and Title VI analysis portrayed the county as dependent on public transit as a vital service.

Transit Propensity

As part of the existing conditions analysis, the study team evaluated the transit propensity of defined areas in the county. A Transit Propensity Index (TPI) synthesizes density of people and jobs, socioeconomic characteristics such as household income and race/ethnicity, and access to personal vehicles into a single metric representing the relative demand for transit services within a defined area. The county was divided into five subareas, which were examined for potential opportunities to capture latent demand or, conversely, to modify service delivery strategies to improve efficiency:

• Germantown-Damascus has among the lowest-performers in the county in terms of ridership productivity, efficiency, and effectiveness. Ride On could consider new delivery models such as on-demand service to improve service quality while maintaining coverage in the area.
• Gaithersburg-Laytonsville-North Potomac has routes with circuitous alignments, but with high on-time performance. Most neighborhoods with the highest transit propensity scores are well served by the existing network.

• Bethesda-Potomac-Rockville generates large ridership volumes in primary corridors, but productivity drops off in lower density and higher income residential neighborhoods. Neighborhoods with the highest transit propensity scores are well served by the existing network.
• Wheaton-Aspen Hill-Olney has a mix of areas that are well served, and those needing improvement. Areas with higher transit propensity scores and low transit accessibility and service levels include the residential neighborhoods located just south of the Intercounty Connector within the Leisure World, Layhill, and Colesville communities, and a smaller pocket in Kemp Mill.

• Silver Spring-Burtonsville is a highly productive transit market, representing about a third of the county’s total daily ridership. However, routes here tend to be less reliable and slower compared to those serving other subareas. In general, routes carrying the largest volumes of passengers exhibit lower on-time performance. This reflects delays attributed to passenger boarding/alighting activity, and the fact that these routes serve highly congested corridors.

Market Analysis

A market and origin/destination analysis helps provide insight into current transit demand and patterns, usage, and transit network operations. This analysis reveals that high population and job densities promote and encourage ridership, as existing bus ridership is clustered in these areas. Pre- and post-COVID-19 ridership was examined to understand its impacts on transit.

• The areas with the greatest densities are generally centered on the I-270 / Maryland Route 355 corridor from Germantown to the I-495 Capital Beltway, and inside the Beltway surrounding the District of Columbia boundaries. These corridors serve the most riders and employees, along with high residential populations.
• Improvements to the network in these areas would benefit the highest number of existing riders and can potentially increase transit usage.
• COVID-19’s impacts on the transit network ridership are demonstrated in a marked reduction of ridership volumes. However, post-COVID-19 ridership trends and patterns are similar to pre-pandemic travel. This corroborates with areas of high residential population and employment density.

Scheduled Bus Operations

In the scheduled bus operations analysis, the study team examined bus trips, schedule adherence, and speed to provide insight in to how well the county’s bus network performed. Pre- and post-COVID performance metrics provided context to the effects of the pandemic on transit operations.

• Overall, buses run on-time within the defined on-time metric of one minute earlier to five minutes later than the scheduled time.
• Buses are most likely to operate late in areas where bus travel speeds are slowest (Germantown, Gaithersburg, Bethesda, portions of Silver Spring, US 29 corridor). Congestion in these areas can slow bus operations in mixed traffic, leading to these reduced speeds and late performance.
• The key distinction between 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2021 (post-pandemic) was that there were an increased number of early arrivals in 2021 over 2019, decreasing schedule adherence performance.

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